Tiger High at Tennessee Vols: Homecoming!

The 2-6 Memphis Tigers are going to be in Neyland stadium Saturday evening to face off against the 4-4 Tennessee Volunteers.  After last week’s convincing win over the Gamecocks, the Vols aren’t planning to look over the Tigers after hearing who Memphis coach Tommy West was making jokes about this week. 

And Tennessee players Eric Berry and Montario Hardesty definitely aren’t pleased, with Berry stating that “Those comments didn’t sit well with me […] and really it’ll be a physical game.”

Tennessee really hasn’t needed bulletin board material this season, but it never hurts to have something to keep the team focused for a game that they might normally have overlooked.  We’ll just have to see whether the Tigers can back up their jokes.

Last Three Games

Memphis’s Last Three Games

Opponent	Result
UTEP	W 35-20
at Southern Mississippi	L 16-36
East Carolina	L 19-38

This Memphis team really just hasn’t performed this season, and the last three games reflect that.  Southern Mississippi and East Carolina beat them by safe margins, and their only win was against a struggling UTEP team.

This Memphis team reminds me of the one in 1988 that liked to talk up a big game:

“As we approached the game site, fans of the Memphis State Tigers lined the street and chanted “Oh-and-six! Oh-and-six! Oh-and-six!” The Vols limped into that ’88 game with an 0-6 record, so MSU’s players and fans were drooling at the prospect of posting their first win in series history. UT had won the previous 11 meetings but this Tennessee team appeared terribly vulnerable. The defense was so bad that coordinator Ken Donahue had resigned one game earlier.”

“Vol fans chanted ‘Oh-and-twelve!’ after beating the Tigers 38-25.”

Oh how I would love to see something like that this season.

Tennessee’s Last Three Games

Opponent	Result
Georgia	W 45-19
at Alabama	L 10-12
South Carolina	W 31-13

The Vols have been playing well ever since the Auburn loss on October 10th, and the team just plain appears to be clicking now.  The last two teams that have entered Neyland Stadium have left with their tails between their legs, and I can’t expect this game to be any different.

Tennessee needs to keep the momentum going with a big win over the Tigers tomorrow to quell any doubters, though some fans will never accept the obvious.

Statistical Analysis

Category	Mem Rank	Mem Avg	UT Rank	UT Avg
Total Offense	70th	367	59th	380
Rushing Offense	80th	134	42nd	172
Passing Offense	46th	232	72nd	208
Scoring Offense	102nd	21	46th	29
Total Defense	100th	417	13th	282
Rushing Defense	105th	198	25th	108
Passing Defense	61st	219	15th	174

Tennessee has a substantial lead in all but one category.  Jonathan Crompton has been playing tremendously better the past few weeks, though, and I would have to argue that the defenses he has faced have been just a bit stouter than the defenses that Memphis QB Will Hudgens has been throwing against.

Other than that category, though, you can see that Tennessee’s defense is as stout as ever, and the offense appears to be catching up.  This will be a good stat padding game as long as the Vols take care of business first.

Offense
Memphis’s offense looks fairly average for most NCAA teams, but it is a bit worse.  Their QB Hudgens has only played in some games this season, and he hasn’t been the clear-cut starter.

The Memphis running game has been lackluster so far this year as well, having only one big game against UTEP which led to their win.  I don’t expect to see the Memphis offense doing much of anything against this tough Vol defense.

The Tennessee offense looked lackluster against South Carolina at times compared to the Alabama game, but I don’t expect that to be the norm.  Lane Kiffin opened up six positions for players to compete for because he was disappointed in last week’s offensive performance.  We should see definite improvement this week.

Defense
The Memphis defense, as can be seen from the stats, has been abysmal this season.  They’re giving up almost 200 yards each game on the ground, so you can bet that Hardesty and Bryce Brown get a ton of carries this week.  We might even see David Oku getting some as well so that he gets more experience for next year.

The Tennessee defense is disproportionally better than the Memphis offense.  It’s really not even close, with the only blemish on the Tennessee roster being safety Janzen Jackson not starting, though Lane Kiffin won’t acknowledge a suspension.

Maybe this week we will see Eric Berry break the interception record as this would be a good one to do it on, but I’m really done trying to predict it.

Three Key Points

• Don’t let it be a letdown game.  After the rough stretch of games that the Vols have played in, they might be tempted to look past Memphis to Ole Miss next week.  Remember Ohio?  That game was ugly, and I do not expect to see anything like that this Saturday.
• The running game should get 200 yards.  I don’t know if this is a key to the game per se or just a prediction of mine, but I firmly believe that the Vols should run all over this Tigers defense.  Hardesty will be all over the place, but we might see a big performance from freshman Bryce Brown as well.
• Freshmen need to play well.  I think we will start to see a bigger role for the freshmen in the coming weeks as Tennessee’s easier part of the schedule hits.  This doesn’t mean the seniors won’t be making as large of contributions, but November is a good month for young players to get experience and Kiffin will most likely give them more playing time this month.

Prediction – Memphis 3, Tennessee 42

I normally don’t predict this big of a margin for games, but I firmly believe that the Vols should dominate Tiger High this Saturday.  Memphis is worse than usual this season, and the Vols should be looking to impress upon the nation that they’re better than their record indicates.

Sometimes that requires you to just give a beatdown to other teams, and this is a good week to do that.

Around the SEC: Week 10

Review of Last Week’s Picks

Ole Miss at Auburn
My pick: Ole Miss
Winner: Auburn 33-20

Georgia at Florida
My pick: Florida
Winner: Florida 41-17

Eastern Michigan at Arkansas
My pick: Arkansas
Winner: Arkansas 63-27

Mississippi State at Kentucky
My pick: Kentucky
Winner: Mississippi State 31—24

Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt
My pick: Georgia Tech
Winner: Georgia Tech 56-31

Tulane at LSU
My pick: LSU
Winner: LSU 42-0

My record: 4-2

Overall – 24-8

Auburn eludes me yet again with a win over Ole Miss.  One week they’re playing horrible and the next they’re beating down Ole Miss.  Jevan Snead did not have the game I thought he would, throwing two picks against the Tiger defense.

Arkansas beat Eastern Michigan in convincing fashion after the loss to Ole Miss last week, Georgia Tech slammed Vanderbilt, and LSU looked sharp with a beatdown of Tulane.

Mississippi State beat Kentucky in Lexington, which was a surprise to me.  I always thought the game was a toss up though, and Kentucky’s two lost fumbles and one interception sealed the win for the Bulldogs.

Florida, not surprisingly, basically destroyed the Bulldogs at the World’s Largest Cocktail Party.  What was surprising was watching Brandon Spikes try to permanently impair a Georgia running back’s vision.  Then after this wasn’t even called, what was more insane was Urban Meyer complaining about the officials missing a call on the great Tim Tebow.  I’m surprised Mike Slive hasn’t sent a firing squad to take care of the official who missed the call.

Speaking of complaining about the referees, didn’t Slive just create a rule stating that coaches cannot publicly criticize officials.  Hmm, he might be in trouble on this one.  It seems he has pinned himself into a corner after creating a new bylaw because he doesn’t like the way a certain coach (READ LANE KIFFIN) is acting, and now his favorite coach Urban Meyer has done the same thing.

What’s Slive going to do about it?  So far, nothing.  And if I had to guess, that’s all we’re going to see.  I would be very surprised if he was actually suspended for a game.

South Carolina (6-3, 3-3) at Arkansas (4-4, 1-4)

What to look for: South Carolina has been famous in recent years for falling apart in the latter part of the season, and it’s suspiciously beginning to look like that again this season.  The last three games have borne two losses and one win (two points over Vanderbilt).  The last loss against the Vols came with four turnovers as they killed themselves.  The Razorbacks have had a bad year in the SEC, losing a couple close ones and just plain getting beat in others.  Whichever team has their confidence back will win this one, and after Arkansas’s recent win over Eastern Michigan I think Ryan Mallet rallies his team with a win over the Gamecocks.

My pick: Arkansas

Tennessee Tech (5-3) at Georgia (4-4, 3-3)

What to look for: While despairing Georgia fans may predict this one as a loss, this should be a good game for the Bulldogs to get their act together. Tennessee Tech has just come off of a win over Tennessee State, and while that might energize them they don’t stand a chance against the Bulldogs.

My pick: Georgia

Eastern Kentucky (5-3) at Kentucky (4-4, 1-4)

What to look for: Yet another SEC school with a pathetic team on the schedule.  Even though UK lost to Mississippi State last week, they’ll run all over this EKU team. Expect Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb to have big games Saturday.

My pick: Kentucky

LSU (7-1, 4-1) at Alabama (8-0, 5-0)

What to look for: The SEC game of the week, and it shouldn’t disappoint.  Earlier in the year LSU couldn’t find their offense while Alabama had an offense at the beginning of the season and has now lost part of it.  Expect the Crimson Tide to be well-rested and well-prepared after their bye week, and as much as I dislike them after the field goal block on Tennessee, I have to pick Alabama.  LSU’s offense just won’t be able to do much against Alabama’s stout defense, plus it’s in Tuscaloosa.

My pick: Alabama

Vanderbilt (2-7, 0-5) at Florida (8-0, 6-0)

What to look for: Vanderbilt actually looked better last week against Georgia Tech, but the Yellow Jacket rushing attack eventually wore them down.  Florida’s offense hasn’t been spectacular this year (quite boring compared to recent years), but they’ll stomp all over the Commodores this week in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.  Even without Brandon Spikes, Florida will somehow survive.

My pick: Florida

Northern Arizona (5-3) at Ole Miss (5-3, 2-3)

What to look for: This is getting ridiculous.  I know Tennessee played Western Kentucky this season, but at least they’re FBS or 1-A or whatever they call it now.  The SEC needs to ramp up its scheduling, especially after this recent article about how Boise State can’t get anyone to schedule them.

My pick: Ole Miss

Gators Still A Bunch of Thugs?

So apparently the SEC hasn’t stopped picking their favorites for this season.  In the Florida-Georgia game on Saturday, Florida basically put the smack down on the Bulldogs.  Normally, in rivalry games such as these, the losing team gets frustrated and starts doing stupid things because of their anger.

Someone needs to tell that to Florida LB Brandon Spikes, who attempted to basically stab the Georgia player in the eyes.  It’s one thing to hit someone helmet to helmet (which you hear a lot of fuss about now), but it’s another thing to maliciously attack another player with the intent to permanently disable them.

Here’s the video:

Urban Meyer needs to get his act together and control his team because this is just despicable.  He should face criminal charges for this, absolutely ridiculous.

So what does Meyer do to take control of the situation? He suspends him of course!  But being the great man he is, he decides to only suspend him for the first half of the Vanderbilt game.

Vanderbilt.  The laughing stock of the SEC.  Meyer at least has a chance to suspend the kid for a game and look halfway decent (should suspend him for season IMO), but he’s not even confident enough in his team for the Commodore game next week to suspend him for the entire game.

"I don't condone that," Meyer said. "I understand what goes on on the football (field), but there's no place for that. We're going to suspend Brandon for the first half of the Vanderbilt game. I spoke with him. That's not who he is. That's not who we are. He got caught up in emotion."

Well isn’t that just great, I’m glad the Vols aren’t playing the Gators again this year because I sure don’t want to see Hardesty get up from a play with no eyes.

Remember when Oregon’s LeGarrette Blount suckerpunched a Boise State player and was suspended for the entire season?  Well, I have to say that punching someone will only leave a nasty bruise, but gouging someone’s eyes out leaves them with a permanent disability.  I commend the Oregon head coach Chip Kelly for teaching his players a huge maturity lesson.

Well, at least we have the SEC to overrule such a light punishment!

Oh wait, there’s more important things than protecting our student athletes.  The SEC accepted Florida’s punishment of Brandon Spikes because they sure don’t want to do anything to hurt their product (aka Florida vs Alabama in the SECCG).

Now I love the SEC and everything, but this is absolutely pathetic and a blatant display of favoritism.  I can only hope that karma comes back to haunt the Gators as they start to reclaim their Thug U title.

South Carolina Turns it Over to Tennessee

The game was both surprising and exactly what I expected.  I knew Tennessee was good enough to beat top 25 teams such as South Carolina, but  I didn’t know that South Carolina would hand the game over on a silver platter to the Vols.  But I’m not complaining, and the fact that UT took those turnovers and turned them into touchdowns put the game out of reach early for the Gamecocks.

Prediction – South Carolina 10, Tennessee 20
Actual – South Carolina 13, Tennessee 31

Well hrm, I feel like my prediction wasn’t too bad, and barring the three turnover touchdowns I would have been closer (given that UT would have scored touchdowns by other means).  Regardless, I was glad to see the Vols hold the Gamecock offense to 13 points and yet score 31 points themselves.

Any doubters still out there?  Oh, I’m sure there are still plenty of Vol- and Kiffin-haters out there, but at least they’ve been squelched for the moment.  Lane Kiffin has turned a 5-7 team around and placed them in a position never thought possible last season.

The Vols could finish the season 8-4 and go to a pretty good bowl game, all things considered.  And while Tennessee hasn’t returned to elite status yet and won’t for at least two years, their outlook has never looked any better.

Team Stats

Category	USC	UT
Time of Possession	26:35	33:25
First Downs	19	15
Total Yards	365	341
Rushing Yards	65	199
Passing Yards	300	142
3rd Down Conversions	4-15	3-14
Turnovers	4	0
Penalties	4 – 35	6 – 40

Tennessee won the time of possession battle by about eight minutes.  That’s surprising considering the number of quick scores that the Vols had off of turnovers, but given how stagnant the offense was at times, it’s not too surprising.

South Carolina had more first downs, as usually happens in a lopsided game because of turnovers. 

A telling stat in this game is the balance of the Tennessee offense.  South Carolina never could get a consistent running game going, so Garcia had the game on his shoulders with his 50 passes (half of which were completions) for 300 yards.

The Tennessee offense, on the other hand, ran the ball 40 times for 199 yards, and only threw 24 passes (half of which were completions) for 142 yards.  Before the Crompton haters come out of the woodwork again, realize that he did what he needed to do and got two touchdowns in the process, also with zero picks thrown.  He did great.

Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown, though, both had good days on the ground against a USC rushing defense that just hasn’t been able to stop teams from running all over them this year.

Both teams did pretty horrible in the third down conversion department, but of course the real telling stat is the turnover category.  South Carolina fumbled the ball three times and threw one interception later in the game, and when you do that you pretty much have no chance of winning.

Three Key Points

• Jonathan Crompton and this Tennessee offense have to keep showing the doubters that it isn’t a fluke, but the offense is actually good.  Everyone expects Crompton to drop back into his former self for this game, but after the way he’s played lately I think that he’s found his new self.  As long as he keeps playing smart, the Vols win.
• Jonathan Crompton definitely played smart, with zero interceptions on the day and two touchdowns.  The offense, though, underperformed on drives that weren’t a result from turnovers, and I think that Lane Kiffin will address any problems this week.  Overall, the offense did what they needed to do and put South Carolina in a big hole early that they couldn’t dig themselves out of.
• Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown need to have a big day on the ground.  They haven’t been tearing it up the past few games the way they were earlier this season, but I fully expect them to blow South Carolina away with the running game this week, provided that USC doesn’t stack the box.  But hey, the passing game will just flip the switch and start throwing downfield then.
• Montario Haresty ran for 121 yards and Bryce Brown had 60 yards on the ground.  I’d call that a good day against a top 25 SEC team.  When you get that many yards rushing during a game and win the turnover battle, you’re probably not gonna lose.  The Vols rushing attack stepped up to the challenge and played a great game.
• The Volunteer defense needs to show no mercy.  This Tennessee defense is just plain fantastic, and I can’t see anything different happening this game.  If they shut down this South Carolina offense the way Auburn shut UT’s down earlier this season, they can wear the USC defense out and score some big points.  I really think Tennessee’s defense is going to have another solid game this week.
• The South Carolina offense scored one touchdown during the game off of a fantastic catch by WR Moe Brown, but other than that they couldn’t get near the endzone.  This Volunteer defense is looking better and better each game, and they even held the Gamecocks to 4 of 15 on third downs.  They shut down the run game and forced the Gamecocks to pass, but they did a good job of also keeping pressure on Garcia and forcing the offense to make mistakes (see four turnovers).  Great game for the Tennessee D.

Halloween Party at Neyland Stadium

Tomorrow night in Knoxville, TN, Tennessee faces the South Carolina Gamecocks.  This is an extremely exciting game for Tennessee fans because it will dictate how the rest of the season goes.  Win, and Kiffin looks like a genius (already does IMO) as the Vols set the tone to be feared in the coming years.  Lose, and while the season can still be salvaged, other teams won’t give Tennessee the type of respect that they want.

It’s most definitely a big one for Tennessee and the Vol coaches.  I think we’ll see a tough fight in a loud Neyland stadium, as it’s been rocking all year long.

Last Three Games

South Carolina’s Last Three Games

Opponent	Result
Kentucky	W 28-26
at Alabama	L 6-20
Vanderbilt	W 14-10

The last few South Carolina have been extremely rough, with both of the home games being decided by an average of three points and getting beat by Alabama in Tuscaloosa. 

And it’s not like they pulled out a tough win against a good team at home, but instead they actually only scraped by both Vanderbilt and Kentucky.  The Kentucky game just shows how susceptible South Carolina is to the run, and the Vandy game… I don’t know what it shows.

Vanderbilt only just passed 250 yards of total offense and still held on tight until the fourth quarter when the Gamecocks finally reached the endzone to finish off the Commodores.  Garcia did have a great game, something to note, along with Alshon Jeffrey (What? He wasn’t pumping gas). 

Overall, this schedule implies that either USC plays down to their opponents levels or has just struggled on offense.  Something interesting to note, the Gamecocks are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win over North Carolina State, who is 3-4 this season.

Tennessee’s Last Three Games

Opponent	Result
Auburn	L 22-26
Georgia	W 45-19
at Alabama	L 10-12

Tennessee’s schedule is just as strange.  They got beat by Auburn, then blasted Georgia back to Athens, and lastly lost an insanely close game to the Crimson Tide.  If I didn’t know better, I’d say Tennessee had a fluke game against the Bulldogs.

What I can see, though, is that this Tennessee team has started to click.  The offense is connecting, and the defense is, as usual, dominating football games.  If the Vols come out with revenge mentality this week (and they should), expect a big game against the Gamecocks.

Category	USC Rank	USC Avg	UT Rank	UT Avg
Total Offense	67th	366	56th	385
Rushing Offense	70th	137	43rd	168
Passing Offense	47th	229	64th	217
Scoring Offense	93rd	23	47th	29
Total Defense	14th	289	10th	270
Rushing Defense	70th	148	33rd	114
Passing Defense	3rd	141	6th	156

Tennessee leads in five out of the seven categories, and I would say that the passing defense is basically a stalemate.  The passing offense, too, isn’t exactly what it seems with great performances from Jonathan Crompton the past two games.

South Carolina’s susceptibility to the run will play a huge role in this game, as will Tennessee passing game (whether it keeps going strong or not).

Offense

South Carolina’s offense is in the middle of the pack in terms of yardage, but like Crompton, Stephen Garcia has been playing much better as the season’s progressed.  His 11 TD – 4 INT ratio shows that he’s been keeping it safe, but he has thrown interceptions against good defenses this year.

The USC running game isn’t as good but really isn’t far behind.  You won’t see any Heisman tailbacks in the backfield, and I really don’t expect the Gamecocks to run over Tennessee on Saturday after watching the Vols hold Alabama’s Mark Ingram to less than 100 yards.

Tennessee’s offense, the Achilles’ heel of the team earlier this season, has been playing exceptionally well the past two games.  Crompton had the best QB performance of anyone over the Crimson Tide this season, and while Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown weren’t busting out 20+ yard runs, they still kept the focus on the running game.

We’ll see a lot more of Hardesty and Brown against the Gamecocks, with maybe a little bit of David Oku mixed in.  Kentucky and Alabama had over 200 yards on the ground against them, and it’s a known flaw in this USC defense.

Defense
The South Carolina defense, as I’ve pointed out, has been unable to defend the run this season.  This weakness has been exploited by opposing teams in order to either beat USC or at least give them a scare.

What I haven’t pointed out is their fantastic pass defense.  Ranked third in the nation, this pass defense has kept USC alive all season.  They’re averaging 2.25 sacks per game with five interceptions.  That said, they haven’t played any passing juggernauts but still held Ole Miss’s Jevan Snead to 107 yards.

Tennessee’s defense has been nothing short of amazing.  They haven’t allowed a touchdown in two games, and with Monte Kiffin’s recent declaration that he’s not retiring anytime soon, UT fans can be extremely pleased.

Safety Eric Berry and LB Rico McCoy are going to have to play big against South Carolina to keep them off the field.  That hasn’t been a problem so far this year, and I don’t expect it to be.  If Tennessee can stop South Carolina (3 and out preferred), then they can wear their defense down until Hardesty and Brown can run at will.

Three Key Points

• Jonathan Crompton and this Tennessee offense have to keep showing the doubters that it isn’t a fluke, but the offense is actually good.  Everyone expects Crompton to drop back into his former self for this game, but after the way he’s played lately I think that he’s found his new self.  As long as he keeps playing smart, the Vols win.
• Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown need to have a big day on the ground.  They haven’t been tearing it up the past few games the way they were earlier this season, but I fully expect them to blow South Carolina away with the running game this week, provided that USC doesn’t stack the box.  But hey, the passing game will just flip the switch and start throwing downfield then.
• The Volunteer defense needs to show no mercy.  This Tennessee defense is just plain fantastic, and I can’t see anything different happening this game.  If they shut down this South Carolina offense the way Auburn shut UT’s down earlier this season, they can wear the USC defense out and score some big points.  I really think Tennessee’s defense is going to have another solid game this week.

Prediction – South Carolina 10, Tennessee 20

I’m insanely excited about this game tomorrow because it’s such a huge one for the Vols, and I think it’s time to show the country (again, but maybe they’ll listen this time) that this new Tennessee team is for real.  Lane Kiffin has proved he can coach, but now he needs to pull out a big win over a top 25 team.